I really like the imagery of Stream and Ocean. Oceans are super abundant and big and fresh, just the kind of thing you would feel Hiraeth for. (also I have very precious memories of going to a beach with people I love, which actually felt like finally getting something I was feeling Hiraeth for)
Streams are so tiny and dull compared to oceans, but, they carry hope and show the way.
Also I like that you bring up how Fucking Weird things are, like General Intelligence, Progress, and the basic biological drive of having kids dropping off, and the Roar of Thunder. It feels like being shown premises and characters at the beginning of a story.
Also Love might be one of the Grooves. Or, an energy source that keeps replenishing whenever you interact with people when your heart is in the right place. (and maybe a Groove is an energy source, which you access when you meet its requirements, but which can only be used in specific ways)
Or you can start asking questions about why Kazakhstan (specifically) has been one of the only countries in the world to buck this trend (TFR 2000: 1.9, 2020: 3.3). It's not because they took away the contraceptives.
And, more prosaically, a lot of people DO want KIDS, not just sex. Many, many people (especially women, but also many many men) have strong terminal preference for having children that is disconnected from their desire for sex.
I have plenty of friends that want children, and are not having them. It's not that people have so much sex and think "wow, thank god I don't have to have kids!" (some people are like that! This isn't surprising, I agree!) But lots of people do want kids and suffer a lot that they are not having them (due to environmental, financial, psychological, or other reasons). You can argue about why they are not having them, but fact is, a lot of them suffer a lot from it and deeply regret not having kids. (nevermind how this is an unstable fixpoint for society at large, whole different can of worms...)
There is no monocause. And I suspect if it was, it would be a lot more schizo than that. This is what I meant, everyone has their own pet theory of why it's "just because of this one, simple, legible thing", and I don't think that's true at all, I think it's horribly messy.
I’m pretty sure you know of the alternate hypothesis (or maybe it is the null one) ? Everyone who is born in a devout Muslim society firmly believes in the Absolute Truth and Beauty of the Quran. Everyone who is born in the Bay Area believes in the holy scripture that is Bentham, and the Truth and Beauty of Utilitarianism. There are exception, they are rare, and most of them are of the form "Fifty Stalins" anyway (we do not follow Allah/Bentham hard enough !).
If you believe that Your Society is the closest the human species ever got to justice, well, that’s what every human ever thought.
One thing that seems clear, though, is that, birth rate aside, our society sure looks like *more adaptive*. A winner in the great game of cultural selection. So granted, the arc of history bends towards *us*. But that is an *is*, not an *ought*. This is just Moloch moving his hand. Is Justice another name for Moloch ?
It is very suspicious to me that the most Adaptive society (us) should also be the most Just. Me thinks we would ask ourselves "are we the Baddies ?" more. Not in the boring, cliché sense, "are we living up to our own standards ?"/"our standards says compassion is good, are we really that compassionate, couldn't we be more ?" But in the more raw sense of "what if our most cherished values, like compassion and equality and freedom and curiosity are actually just Moloch in a pretty dress ?"
Does our material success makes actually makes us the good Stewards of Human Values ? (and by we, I mostly means us who builds the God Machines. The WEIRD cluster) Might makes Right-style ?
> Do you know how hard you have to abuse a mammal (with access to adequate food) to make them not have kids?
It is actually pretty easy. For many species, this is what happens by default when you put them in a zoo. Sure, we have found ways to work around the issue. See "Behavioral enrichment" on Wikipedia.
This is not unrelated to the "Are we the Baddies" question, by the way.
I really like the imagery of Stream and Ocean. Oceans are super abundant and big and fresh, just the kind of thing you would feel Hiraeth for. (also I have very precious memories of going to a beach with people I love, which actually felt like finally getting something I was feeling Hiraeth for)
Streams are so tiny and dull compared to oceans, but, they carry hope and show the way.
Also I like that you bring up how Fucking Weird things are, like General Intelligence, Progress, and the basic biological drive of having kids dropping off, and the Roar of Thunder. It feels like being shown premises and characters at the beginning of a story.
Also Love might be one of the Grooves. Or, an energy source that keeps replenishing whenever you interact with people when your heart is in the right place. (and maybe a Groove is an energy source, which you access when you meet its requirements, but which can only be used in specific ways)
Minor disagreement: most animals want sex, not children per se.
What happened was suddenly we were able to separate sex from children, and then, tons of people chose just sex.
Definitely a part of the story, but again the real picture is messier, e.g. this study (https://ngmiller.people.stanford.edu/publications/fertility/contraception-development-new-evidence-family-planning-colombia) that shows only about 10% of fertility decline in Columbia is explained by access to family planning, or this (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-012-0172-2) that shows a 17% decline in fertility in Bangladesh associated with access to contraceptives (with controls), while the overall drop in TFR over that period of time is closer to 50%.
Or you can start asking questions about why Kazakhstan (specifically) has been one of the only countries in the world to buck this trend (TFR 2000: 1.9, 2020: 3.3). It's not because they took away the contraceptives.
And, more prosaically, a lot of people DO want KIDS, not just sex. Many, many people (especially women, but also many many men) have strong terminal preference for having children that is disconnected from their desire for sex.
I have plenty of friends that want children, and are not having them. It's not that people have so much sex and think "wow, thank god I don't have to have kids!" (some people are like that! This isn't surprising, I agree!) But lots of people do want kids and suffer a lot that they are not having them (due to environmental, financial, psychological, or other reasons). You can argue about why they are not having them, but fact is, a lot of them suffer a lot from it and deeply regret not having kids. (nevermind how this is an unstable fixpoint for society at large, whole different can of worms...)
There is no monocause. And I suspect if it was, it would be a lot more schizo than that. This is what I meant, everyone has their own pet theory of why it's "just because of this one, simple, legible thing", and I don't think that's true at all, I think it's horribly messy.
Fair enough. Yeah, it’s very unlikely to be monocausal.
My main disagreement is mostly “people suffering/being in a bad environment somehow probably doesn’t explain the majority of lowered fertility”
Mind, this could easily be typical mind fallacy. I really don’t want children and am grateful for contraceptives every day.
Animals want offspring. Humans need sex.
I’m enjoying 👍
> the arc of history has bent toward justice.
How confident are we of that ?
I’m pretty sure you know of the alternate hypothesis (or maybe it is the null one) ? Everyone who is born in a devout Muslim society firmly believes in the Absolute Truth and Beauty of the Quran. Everyone who is born in the Bay Area believes in the holy scripture that is Bentham, and the Truth and Beauty of Utilitarianism. There are exception, they are rare, and most of them are of the form "Fifty Stalins" anyway (we do not follow Allah/Bentham hard enough !).
If you believe that Your Society is the closest the human species ever got to justice, well, that’s what every human ever thought.
One thing that seems clear, though, is that, birth rate aside, our society sure looks like *more adaptive*. A winner in the great game of cultural selection. So granted, the arc of history bends towards *us*. But that is an *is*, not an *ought*. This is just Moloch moving his hand. Is Justice another name for Moloch ?
It is very suspicious to me that the most Adaptive society (us) should also be the most Just. Me thinks we would ask ourselves "are we the Baddies ?" more. Not in the boring, cliché sense, "are we living up to our own standards ?"/"our standards says compassion is good, are we really that compassionate, couldn't we be more ?" But in the more raw sense of "what if our most cherished values, like compassion and equality and freedom and curiosity are actually just Moloch in a pretty dress ?"
Does our material success makes actually makes us the good Stewards of Human Values ? (and by we, I mostly means us who builds the God Machines. The WEIRD cluster) Might makes Right-style ?
> Do you know how hard you have to abuse a mammal (with access to adequate food) to make them not have kids?
It is actually pretty easy. For many species, this is what happens by default when you put them in a zoo. Sure, we have found ways to work around the issue. See "Behavioral enrichment" on Wikipedia.
This is not unrelated to the "Are we the Baddies" question, by the way.
You are seeing why this is an uncomfortable mystery indeed :)
I think you should use Fuck less, it would have more impact